Week 11 NFL picks: Why Patriots will roll in Super Bowl rematch and more of Tom Fornelli’s best bets

What’s the over/under on how many hours Bill Belichick spent watching film the last two weeks? You know the guy has to hate bye weeks because bye weeks mean his team isn’t playing that week, therefore he’s not coaching. When that bye week comes after a loss? You know Bill was at his surliest self over the bye.

All of which was bad news for Patriots players and coaches who had to deal with it, but it’s even worse news for the Eagles. Not only has Bill had two weeks to watch tape and be angry, but now he’s facing the team that beat him in Super Bowl LII?

You know the Eagles are in trouble, and that’s where we start with this week’s picks.

1. Patriots -3.5 at Eagles

Baltimore showed the world that New England’s defense isn’t invulnerable. You can move the ball against the Patriots and score points against them, but the problem for Philly here is that Baltimore has an offense that’s unique to Baltimore. While the Eagles have been doing a good job running the ball recently, they aren’t the Ravens. They don’t have Lamar Jackson, who is one hell of an equalizer.

Also, as I mentioned above, the Eagles are getting an angry Bill Belichick this week. Did you know that the Patriots are 36-16 ATS following a loss since 2005? What about New England’s record of 102-69-3 ATS in non-divisional games since 2005? Or how about the fact they’re 14-9-1 ATS off a bye in that same time span? Yeah, the Eagles might cover this spread, but I don’t know how you can bet on them to do it.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Eagles 20

2. Cardinals +11.5 at 49ers

Was I the only one who watched the first meeting between these teams two weeks ago? Sure, it was a Thursday night and it was in Arizona, but the 49ers won 28-25. What’s changed in the two weeks since that game that the Cardinals are now 8.5 points worse than they were in that game? I get that it’s in San Francisco this time, but the 49ers offense hasn’t looked amazing in the last two games. A lot of that was due to injuries to George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders in the loss to Seattle, but Kittle has already been ruled out and Sanders could still be banged up for this contest.

On the other sideline is an Arizona offense that started to look good against the 49ers and carried that momentum on the road against Tampa Bay last week. Getting Christian Kirk back makes this Arizona offense a lot more potent, and while I don’t know that the Cardinals are going on the road to hand the Niners a second straight loss, this spread is too big.

Prediction: 49ers 28, Cardinals 20

Who should you back against the spread, on the money line and the total in every Week 11 NFL game? And which Super Bowl contender goes down? Visit SportsLine to see their Week 11 NFL cheat sheet, all from the model that is up almost $ 7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.  

3. Bears at Rams Under 40.5

Sometimes you’re taking an Under because of the two defenses involved. Sometimes you do it just to fade the two starting quarterbacks. Then there are those magical times when you’re doing both. The Rams offense is an absolute mess, and the Steelers showed you how to make Jared Goff helpless last weekend. Simply double-team Cooper Kupp on third down and watch Goff’s brain fry as he tries to figure out a Plan B in the two or three seconds his offensive line allows him to make a decision.

The Bears offensive line isn’t as bad as the Rams, but it hasn’t been great itself and has problems on the interior. That doesn’t bode well when facing Aaron Donald. I don’t see either of these teams being able to find a lot of success running the ball in this matchup, which means they’ll need to rely on their quarterbacks. Do you want to rely on either of these QBs? No, of course you don’t.

Prediction: Rams 17, Bears 13

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